Subjective Probability Models for Lifetimes

Bayesian methods in reliability cannot be fully utilized without understanding the essential differences that exist between frequentist probability and subjective probability. Switching from the frequentist to the subjective approach requires that some fundamental concepts be re-thought. This text details those differences and clarifies aspects of subjective probability that have a direct influence on modeling and drawing inference from failure and survival data. In particular, within a framework of Bayesian theory, the author considers the effects of different levels of information in the analysis of the phenomena of positive and negative aging.