Structural Change in Macroeconomic Models : Theory and Estimation

This book grew out of a Doctorat DEtat thesis presented at the University of Dijon-Institut Mathematique Economiques (lME). It aims to show that quantity rationing theory provides the means of improving macroeconometric modelling in the study of struc- tural changes. The empirical results presented in the last chapter (concerning Portuguese economy) and in the last Appendix (con- cerning the French economy), although preliminary, suggested that the effort is rewarding and should be continued. My debts are many. An important part of the research work was accomplished during my visit to the Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (lNSEE, Paris), where I have beneficted from stimulating discussions (particularly with P. Villa) and infor- matical support. I have also received comments and suggestions from R. Quandt, J.-J. Laffont, P. Kooiman and P.-Y. Henin. I am specially indebted to P. Balestra for encouraging and valuable discussions, particularly in the field of econometric methods. My thanks go also to an anonymous referee. His constructive criticism and suggestions resulted in a number of improvements to an earlier version of this book. I cannot forget my friend A. Costa from BP A (Porto) who has helped me in the preparation of this work. Last but not least, I would like to thank my wife for her encouragement and patience throughout these years. Of course, I am the only one responsible for any remaining errors.