Introduction of a New Conceptual Framework for Government Debt Management

Against the background of the financial-cum-sovereign debt crisis, government debt managers are currently faced by a challenging environment. One key element in that respect is the analysis and forecast of interest rates, which is important for achieving the strategic objective of low borrowing costs. Anja Hubig develops a new mathematical method to estimate the term structure of interest rates that is adopted to describe the term structure dynamics within a stochastic setting. The introduced model is capable of capturing the complex behavior of the entire yield curve with a reduced set of parameters. It essentially ensures a comprehensive analysis of the costs and risks associated with individual funding strategies, and thus, effectively supports the selection of a long-term optimal debt portfolio composition.